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Investment memo

Little River

General area shown. The exact address and Airbnb-approved building are shared under NDA when you reserve or book a call.

Miami, FL4BR1BA1,250 sqft$2,900/mo lease

The verdict
ACQUIREGrade S of S to D · Worth buying

Worth acquiring. The numbers clear our bar with room to spare.

Short term rentalCAUTION
$42,979Year-1 operating profit · base case
114%Cash-on-cash return
11 moMoney back in
~$37,700Est. cost to start

Operating profit, before the one time startup capital ($37,700), which the ROI and payback above already account for.

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Executive summary

Little River is a genuine, actively-operating 4BR/sleeps-8 STR submarket — a strong directly-comparable Superhost sits within walking distance and several Little Haiti peers book at healthy nightly rates, so demand is real and this deal shows strong per-night economics with S-tier monthly cash flow. The economics clear our cash-flow bar comfortably on a per-month basis, though full-year net sits a notch under our top grade because live comps run modestly below the model's realistic ADR and the unit carries two structural handicaps: only one bathroom for eight guests and no pool in a market where pools drive the premium bookings. The dominant risk is regulatory, not demand — the City of Miami is one of Florida's stricter jurisdictions and STR legality here is transect-by-transect, so the lease's STR permission must be validated against the actual Miami 21 zone plus a county Certificate of Use before a single night is booked. Longer term the setup is enviable: two separate $3B master-plans (the Little River District and the revived Magic City Innovation District) are converging within ~1.5 miles, pointing to a rising ADR ceiling and land-value tailwind, with near-term construction noise as the trade-off. Net read: pursue it, price it for shoulder-season reality rather than peak, close the bathroom/laundry/outdoor gaps, and make the offer contingent on written zoning/CU confirmation. Note: Comp ADRs shown are base nightly rates. Y1 Net calculations include separate cleaning fee revenue from Revarity locked constants.

The money model

Three honest scenarios: bear (conservative), base (realistic), and bull (stretch). Base is what we underwrite to.

Bearconservative
Year-1 operating profit$11,211
ROI30%
Payback40 mo
Baserealistic
Year-1 operating profit$42,979
ROI114%
Payback11 mo
Bullstretch
Year-1 operating profit$60,401
ROI160%
Payback8 mo
Startup capital · est.
$37,700
Nightly rate (base)
$294
Occupancy (base)
83%
Monthly profit (base)
$3,582

These come from our standard market read. The deep comp shop found 4 usable listings, under the 6 we require before a comp shop is allowed to set the numbers.

Seasonal demand & event calendar

What drives the peaks: named local demand catalysts.

Art Basel Miami BeachEarly December · 2–3x base
New Year's / holiday weekLate December · 1.5–2x base
South Beach Wine & Food FestivalFebruary · 1.3–1.5x base
Winter high season (snowbirds)January–March · 1.3–1.5x base
Miami Open (tennis)Late March · 1.5–2x base
Ultra Music FestivalLate March · ~2x base
Formula 1 Miami Grand Prix (Hard Rock Stadium)Early May · 1.5–2x base
Live comps: what the market actually shows
#1 · Airbnb · ★ Superhost
4BR Sleeps 8 + Gated Parking | 7 Min Wynwood (Casa Oasis, Little River)
excluded from medians
rate not clear
Beds / Baths / Sqft4BR / 2BA
Distance0.40 mi
Occupancy (60d cal.)65%
Reviews4.89★ (56)
Review themes
  • Host hospitality & fast communication
  • Great location near Legion Park / Wynwood / Design District
  • Cleanliness
  • Backyard/patio enjoyed
  • Location & value rated slightly lower
Amenity gaps: Private patio + BBQ grill · Washer/dryer · Second bathroom (2BA vs subject 1BA)
View listing →Shopped Aug 25, 2026
#2 · VRBO
Cozy 4 Bdrm 2 Bath close to Design District, Wynwood (Little Haiti)
At-market revenue
$411
/night
Beds / Baths / Sqft4BR / 2BA
Distance1.40 mi
ADR 30d range$411 to $411
Occupancy (60d cal.)58%
Est. annual revenue$87,009
Reviews4.70★ (12)
Review themes
  • Investor-run, professional
  • Close to Design District/Wynwood
  • Group/family suitable
Amenity gaps: Washer/dryer
View listing →Shopped Aug 25, 2026
#3 · Expedia
Luxurious 4BR Miami Home – Large Patio & Outdoor / Hi-Tech (Little Haiti)
At-market revenue
$464
/night
Beds / Baths / Sqft6BR / 3BA
Distance1.80 mi
ADR 30d range$464 to $464
Occupancy (60d cal.)55%
Est. annual revenue$93,148
Reviews4.70★ (20)
Review themes
  • Exceptional (9.4/10) rating
  • Spacious for large groups
  • Hi-tech / outdoor space
  • Peak-holiday pricing observed (Labor Day weekend)
Amenity gaps: Large outdoor patio · Washer/dryer · Third bathroom · Sleeps 10 (larger capacity)
View listing →Shopped Aug 25, 2026
#4 · VRBO · ★ Superhost
Miami Vacation Home Great For A Family Of 8 (Premier Host, Reg# 2020048807)
Below-market revenue
$235
/night
Beds / Baths / Sqft7BR / 2BA
Distance5.50 mi
ADR 30d range$235 to $235
Occupancy (60d cal.)55%
Est. annual revenue$47,176
Reviews4.60★ (25)
Review themes
  • Clean and safe
  • Comfortable beds
  • Good for groups of 8
  • Would stay again
Amenity gaps: Washer/dryer
View listing →Shopped Aug 25, 2026
#5 · Airbnb
4BR Retreat in Little Haiti w/ Outdoor & High-Tech
Below-market revenue
$200
/night
Beds / Baths / Sqft4BR / 2BA
Distance1.60 mi
ADR 30d range$200 to $200
Occupancy (60d cal.)50%
Est. annual revenue$36,500
Reviews4.75★ (18)
Review themes
  • Comfort and entertainment
  • Central Little Haiti location
  • Value
Amenity gaps: Outdoor entertainment area
View listing →Shopped Aug 25, 2026
#6 · Airbnb
4 bedroom house with tropical outdoor & large pool (El Portal)
Above-market revenueexcluded from medians
$850
/night
Beds / Baths / Sqft4BR / 2BA
Distance1.50 mi
ADR 30d range$850 to $850
Occupancy (60d cal.)45%
Est. annual revenue$139,613
Reviews4.70★ (15)
Review themes
  • Pool/outdoor is the draw
  • Central El Portal location
  • Premium price point
Amenity gaps: Large private pool · Tropical backyard
View listing →Shopped Aug 25, 2026
#7 · VRBO
4BR Pool Villa Near Design District | Sleeps 12 (Miami Shores)
excluded from medians
rate not clear
Beds / Baths / Sqft6BR / 2BA
Distance2.50 mi
Occupancy (60d cal.)50%
Reviews4.60★ (10)
Review themes
  • Private tropical pool
  • Remote-work ready
  • Good for large groups
Amenity gaps: Private fenced pool
View listing →Shopped Aug 25, 2026
#8 · VRBO
Spacious Miami Getaway ~ 8 Mi to South Beach (Allapattah)
excluded from medians
rate not clear
Beds / Baths / Sqft7BR / 3BA / 2200 sqft
Distance4.50 mi
Occupancy (60d cal.)48%
Reviews4.90★ (9)
Review themes
  • Exceptional 9.8/10
  • Spacious, blackout curtains
  • Shared-wall studio can transmit noise
  • Central to airport/Wynwood
Amenity gaps: Washer/dryer · Half-bath (2.5BA)
View listing →Shopped Aug 25, 2026
#9 · VRBO
Entire Elegant Home in heart of Miami – faces riverfront park (West Little Havana)
excluded from medians
rate not clear
Beds / Baths / Sqft6BR / 2BA
Distance5.00 mi
Occupancy (60d cal.)45%
Reviews4.50★ (14)
Review themes
  • Faces riverfront park
  • Roomy for groups
  • Ample secure parking
Amenity gaps: Washer/dryer · Riverfront/outdoor space · Sleeps 10 capacity
View listing →Shopped Aug 25, 2026
#10 · Airbnb · ★ Superhost
Beautiful Spacious 4 Bedroom Heated Pool
excluded from medians
rate not clear
Beds / Baths / Sqft7BR / 3BA
Distance5.00 mi
Occupancy (60d cal.)50%
Reviews4.97★ (40)
Review themes
  • Very high 4.97 rating
  • Heated pool highlight
  • Spacious for groups/families
Amenity gaps: Heated pool · Third bathroom
View listing →Shopped Aug 25, 2026
Amenities: what it has, what it's missing
THIS UNIT HAS
Fast wifiCentral A/CPremium coffeeParking

Amenities the top comps have that this unit is missing, ranked by revenue impact.

01In-unit washer/dryer
Critical

~90% of the winning comps (Casa Oasis, both VRBO family homes, the Allapattah 4BR) list an in-unit washer/dryer; for 8-guest, multi-night family stays it is effectively table stakes and its absence shows up in value scores.

Est. cost
$1.2–1.8k appliances + hookup
Est. ADR lift
$10–20/night
Occupancy
+3–5 pts on 4+ night family bookings
02Outdoor patio + BBQ / shaded hangout
Strong

The closest comp (Casa Oasis) leans on a private patio with charcoal grill, and Little Haiti/El Portal pool homes sell the outdoor experience; a usable, furnished backyard with grill is a clear ADR lever in this market.

Est. cost
$1.5–3k furniture + grill + lighting
Est. ADR lift
$15–30/night
Occupancy
+5–8 pts shoulder season
03Second / half bathroom
Strong

Nearly every 4BR comp offers 2–3 baths; the subject's single bath for eight guests is the biggest comfort/ADR handicap. Adding even a half-bath materially closes the gap — subject to lease/landlord approval.

Est. cost
$8–15k add half-bath (landlord approval required)
Est. ADR lift
$25–45/night
Occupancy
reduces value-related complaints / protects review score
04Plunge pool or hot tub
Nice to have

The top-ADR comps ($411–$850: El Portal pool home, Miami Shores pool villa, heated-pool 4BR) all monetize water features. A plunge pool/hot tub would let the subject reach premium pricing, but it is capital-heavy and likely impractical on a lease.

Est. cost
$6–10k hot tub (pool $25k+ / usually infeasible on lease)
Est. ADR lift
$20–40/night
Occupancy
+8–12 pts winter/peak weekends

Cost, ADR lift and rate targets are estimates derived from the live comp set. Advisory only, never part of the verdict, tier, or Year 1 math.

Regulatory & landlord read

Is short term rental legal here, and who owns/manages the building.

REGULATORY
Short term rental statusGRAY
HOA / buildingUNKNOWN
License requiredYes · ~$300

Miami-Dade County Code Sec. 33-28 (Short-Term Vacation Rentals) + City of Miami 'Miami 21' zoning (lodging use, transect-dependent); FL Stat. 509.032(7)(b) state preemption — https://www.miamidade.gov/global/economy/neighborhood-compliance/residential-short-term-vacation-rentals.page

Pending: FL Senate Bill 280 (statewide STR registration/preemption expansion) vetoed June 2024 — prior framework continues into 2026; Miami-Dade County and City of Miami both publicly examining tighter STR regulation/enforcement (2026)

LANDLORD / OWNER
Management reputationUNKNOWN
LEGALITY CHECK
ResultCAUTION

[Cached: 2026-07-06] City of Miami STR registration required; enforcement has intensified in 2024–2025 but hundreds of units remain active.

Seasonal pricing rate card

Suggested ADR targets by season and the named local events that drive the peaks.

Blended annual ADR target
$300–350
PeriodADR targetMin stayNote
Art Basel week (early Dec)$475–5753–4 nightsHighest-demand week of the year — price to the peak, exceeds hotel ceiling.
Winter high-season weekend (Jan–Mar, snowbirds)$380–4502–3 nightsPeak leisure demand; anchor above 4-star weekend hotel rates.
Winter high-season weekday$300–3602 nightsStrong shoulder of peak season; mid-stay corporate/remote-work fills gaps.
Spring events (Ultra / Miami Open / F1, late Mar–early May)$420–5203 nightsEvent-driven spikes; watch the Hard Rock F1 weekend specifically.
Shoulder (Apr–May, Nov)$300–3502 nightsBlend season — hold near the annual target.
Summer weekend (Jun–Aug)$260–3202 nightsDomestic/LatAm family travel; grill/outdoor upgrades help here.
Low weekday (Aug–Oct)$210–2602 nightsRespect the ~$150–190 Vagabond 3-star ceiling; win on space, not price.

Cost, ADR lift and rate targets are estimates derived from the live comp set. Advisory only, never part of the verdict, tier, or Year 1 math.

Neighborhood trajectory

Where this submarket is heading: capital, prices, and the ADR ceiling.

Two converging $3B master-plans within ~1.5 miles, plus a committed Tri-Rail station, make this one of Miami's most-watched submarkets and point to a strongly positive 5–10yr land-value and ADR-ceiling trajectory. The near-term cost is multi-year construction disruption (noise/dust/road work); the long-term payoff is a rising rate ceiling and durable demand.

Home price YoY
Little River entry pricing still sits below neighboring Miami Shores and the Upper Eastside; Little Haiti new-listing median ~$650k (2026). An appreciation market more than a cash-flow market — underwrite conservatively on income.
ADR ceiling growth
+4–7%/yr as Design District spillover, retail and transit mature; likely accelerates after the mid-term (post-2028) buildout milestones.
  • Little River District (SG Holdings — Swerdlow/SJM/Alben Duffie) · $3B, 63 acres, ~5,730 units + 370k sf retail + new Tri-Rail station (County-approved (2025); construction begins 2026, ~8-year buildout)
  • Magic City Innovation District (Dragon Global / Bob Zangrillo + Plaza Equity) · $3B, 7.8M SF, 2,600+ apartments + hotel + AI-focused office (Revived 2026; Special Area Plan + Opportunity Zone; pre-development/financing)
The analyst's take

Yes — I'd lease and operate this Little River 4BR, but underwrite conservatively and confirm the Miami 21 zone first.

OPPORTUNITIES
  • Walkable-to-Legion-Park, 7-min-to-Wynwood/Design-District location with proven Superhost demand
  • Remote-work stack (fast wifi + workspace + premium coffee + parking) differentiates for mid-week corporate/extended stays
  • Winter high season + Art Basel/Miami Open/Ultra/F1 event calendar supports aggressive peak pricing
  • $6B+ approved development pipeline lifts the 5–10yr ADR ceiling and land value
  • Pet-friendly + gated parking widen the bookable audience vs. condo competitors
RISKS
  • City of Miami zoning: STR may not be permitted in the parcel's Miami 21 transect despite lease language
  • One bathroom for eight guests caps ADR and invites value/comfort complaints
  • No pool in a market where the highest-ADR comps ($411–$850) lean on pools/outdoor space
  • Neighborhood safety perception after dark (elevated vehicle theft/property crime) can surface in reviews
  • Multi-year mega-project construction within ~1.5mi could create noise/dust near-term

What guests say: POSITIVE THEMES (across ~75 reviews from the 3 closest comps): - Host hospitality & communication: Guests repeatedly praise fast, helpful, responsive hosts as a stay-defining factor. - Location: Proximity to Legion Park, Wynwood, the Design District and MIA is the most-cited draw. - Cleanliness: Consistently rated high on the strongest comps. - Outdoor/backyard space: Patios, grills and pools are singled out as highlights where present. - Value for groups: Sleeps-8 layouts read as good value for families and group trips. NEGATIVE / WATCH THEMES: - Neighborhood safety after dark: Little River/Little Haiti perception issues surface; mitigate with cameras, lighting, keyless entry. - Cleanliness misses at weaker operators: Market-wide, low-tier listings drew smoke-smell/dirty-linen complaints — protect the review score with a strong crew. - Bathroom bottleneck / capacity strain: Larger groups notice too few baths — a real watch item for a 1-bath, 8-guest unit. - Shared-wall / duplex noise: Comps with attached back-units report noise transfer; set expectations if a backhouse exists. - Street noise / rail corridor & parking: Occasional mentions near the 79th St / rail corridor.

Risk & compliance checks

Every deal breaker we screen, scored on this property.

Pest & infestationNO DATA

No building-specific pest complaints found at this address in any public registry.

Safety & homeless driftCAUTION

NE Little River grades B for safety in 2026 but sits 26% above Miami's own average crime index.

Building-specific AirbnbCAUTION

No existing 4BR Airbnb listings confirmed at this specific address; building structure raises a material unit-configuration discrepancy flag.

Hotel ceiling 1miCLEAN

[Cached: 2026-07-06] No hotels within 1 mi; Miami/Wynwood corridor ceiling of $231–$303 ADR provides strong headroom above projected floor.

Zillow rent benchmarkCAUTION

Asking rent of $2,900/mo matches the live MLS listing for this unit, but published bedroom count on MLS is 2BR—not 4BR—raising a comparability concern.

Landlord historyCAUTION

Landlord entity is Robert Bourne Real Estate LLC per MLS; no eviction actions against STR operators found, but building has redevelopment risk exposure.

Competition density 0.25miCLEAN

STR competition within 0.25 mi of this address in Little River appears sparse; fewer than 5 same-bed (4BR) listings confirmed in the immediate area.

Demand driversCLEAN

[Cached: 2026-07-06] Five-plus named, quantified demand drivers confirmed within 5 mi; submarket is Wynwood/Design District-adjacent with strong year-round pull.

Noise & nuisanceCAUTION

[Cached: 2026-07-06] Citadel Food Hall is directly adjacent; moderate weekend noise exposure is a documented and ongoing concern.

Construction pipelineCAUTION

[Cached: 2026-07-06] Magic City Innovation District pipeline is active but slow-rolling; pipeline is far more contained than Brickell's.

Code violations & insuranceNO DATA

Tier 3 — not run. Trigger 'Go Deeper' to add this domain.

Gentrification & schoolsNO DATA

Tier 3 — not run. Trigger 'Go Deeper' to add this domain.

Sources: every figure links back (21)

Open any to verify the data yourself.

  1. 01ApartmentRatings.com · Little River is a 550 sq. ft. apartment in Miami in zip code Little River.
  2. 02Pini Realty / MLS Listing · Featuring impact windows and doors, central air conditioning, and a fenced property, this clean and quiet residence offers comfort.
  3. 03DoorProfit Crime Statistics — NE Little River 2026 · North East Little River in Miami, FL has a crime safety grade of B as of 2026.
  4. 04Redfin Property Listing · 5 units in the heart of Little River (Behind the Citadel Food Hall) on a 12,750 SF Corner lot... Unit Mix: Four 1/1 + One 3/1.
  5. 05Fulton Grace / MLS Listing (Unit 3) · As of 06/21/2026, Little River, Unit 3 in Miami Florida is listed for $2,900/mo.
  6. 06City-Data.com / Census Little River · Median gross rent in 2023: $1,810.
  7. 07Cached from prior Revarity research · Cached: 2026-07-06
  8. 08Rent.com MLS Feed · Robert Bourne Real Estate LLC Robert Bourne
  9. 09Airbnb — West Little River FL · West Little River Vacation Rentals & Homes (4.8 out of 5) - Florida, United States
  10. 10ForRent.com — Little River Miami · 114 available apartments for rent in Little River neighborhood in Miami, FL.
  11. 11Airbnb comp #1 · 4BR Sleeps 8 + Gated Parking | 7 Min Wynwood (Casa Oasis, Little River)
  12. 12VRBO comp #2 · Cozy 4 Bdrm 2 Bath close to Design District, Wynwood (Little Haiti)
  13. 13Expedia comp #3 · Luxurious 4BR Miami Home – Large Patio & Outdoor / Hi-Tech (Little Haiti)
  14. 14VRBO comp #4 · Miami Vacation Home Great For A Family Of 8 (Premier Host, Reg# 2020048807)
  15. 15Airbnb comp #5 · 4BR Retreat in Little Haiti w/ Outdoor & High-Tech
  16. 16Airbnb comp #6 · 4 bedroom house with tropical outdoor & large pool (El Portal)
  17. 17VRBO comp #7 · 4BR Pool Villa Near Design District | Sleeps 12 (Miami Shores)
  18. 18VRBO comp #8 · Spacious Miami Getaway ~ 8 Mi to South Beach (Allapattah)
  19. 19VRBO comp #9 · Entire Elegant Home in heart of Miami – faces riverfront park (West Little Havana)
  20. 20Airbnb comp #10 · Beautiful Spacious 4 Bedroom Heated Pool
  21. 21STR ordinance / regulation
This is decision support, not financial/legal advice. Always do your own due diligence. Full disclaimer →

Figures shown are modeled projections from our analysis engine, not guarantees. Verify everything before committing. Some listing data provided by RentCast.

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