Government Center
General area shown. The exact address and Airbnb-approved building are shared under NDA when you reserve or book a call.
Miami, FL1BR1BA384 sqft$2,750/mo lease
Worth acquiring. The numbers clear our bar with room to spare.
Operating profit, before the one time startup capital ($31,750), which the ROI and payback above already account for.
Executive summary
Government Center is District 225 — a Related Group tower purpose-built and Airbnb-approved, professionally run by Atlantic & Pacific, in a downtown T6 zone where licensed short-term rentals are permitted, so the legal and operational footing is unusually clean for Miami. The problem is price: this submarket's realized ADR — confirmed by both our independent TTM actuals cross-check and the live District 225 listing we could price — runs well below the fast-model's ADR assumption and is capped on weekdays by a soft downtown hotel ceiling, so the lease-arbitrage spread is thin and only pencils if a strong operator pushes season and event pricing hard. New supply is the dominant risk: the surrounding Miami Worldcenter pipeline is delivering thousands of fully-furnished, no-rental-restriction STR units into a half-mile radius over the next 18-36 months, pressuring both occupancy and ADR exactly as this unit ramps. Our comp ADR and occupancy agree with the independent TTM actuals within tolerance, so the downside case is real rather than a data artifact — this is strong per-night product but a supply-pressured, lease-cost-sensitive play. Recommendation: pursue only with a materially lower effective rent (more free months or a lower base) or a regulatory-exit clause; at today's terms it does not clear our bar. Note: Comp ADRs shown are base nightly rates. Y1 Net calculations include separate cleaning fee revenue from Revarity locked constants.
The money model
Three honest scenarios: bear (conservative), base (realistic), and bull (stretch). Base is what we underwrite to.
These come from our standard market read. The deep comp shop found 1 usable listing, under the 6 we require before a comp shop is allowed to set the numbers.
Seasonal demand & event calendar
What drives the peaks: named local demand catalysts.
Live comps: what the market actually shows
8 of 9 listings left out, their nightly rate wasn't clear
- Consistently clean & well-stocked
- Central downtown location
- Resort amenities loved
- Would book again
- Central location (5.0)
- Brand-new finishes
- Parking convenience
- Occasional cleanliness/accuracy miss (one 2-star)
- Great location near dining
- Modern furnished unit
- Responsive host
- Building amenities
- New listing — limited reviews
- Free parking highlighted
- Skyline views
- Rooftop pool & spa loved
- Walkable to Bayside/Kaseya
- Front-desk ID/fob check-in
- Quiet, no-parties building
- Exceptional guest rating
- Steps from Government Center Metrorail
- Resort amenities
- New building
- Rooftop pool & views
- 24/7 security
- Central downtown
- All-inclusive pricing
- dormant/inactive — excluded from medians
- Sleeps 2 (closest bed/sleeps match)
- Single low review
- Central 5-min-to-Bayfront location
- Full building amenities
- All-in pricing (incl fees)
- Self parking $25/day
- Doorman/valet convenience
- Rooftop pool views
- Walkable to Whole Foods/Brickell
- Modern building
Amenities: what it has, what it's missing
Amenities the top comps have that this unit is missing, ranked by revenue impact.
Nearly every winning comp (District 225 #2302/#2309, Ang & Zac, The Crosby) sleeps 4 via a queen/full sofa bed while the subject sleeps only 2 — this caps addressable group/family demand and weekend ADR. Adding a quality queen sofa bed is the single highest-leverage unit-level change.
Cost, ADR lift and rate targets are estimates derived from the live comp set. Advisory only, never part of the verdict, tier, or Year 1 math.
Regulatory & landlord read
Is short term rental legal here, and who owns/manages the building.
Miami 21 Zoning Code, Art. 4, Table 3 (short-term rental / lodging permitted in T4, T5, T6, CI-HD; subject is downtown T6); Miami-Dade County Code §33-28 (Certificate of Use); FL DBPR Ch. 509 Vacation Rental Dwelling license; City of Miami BTR. https://www.miamigov.com/Services/Doing-Business/Get-a-Certificate-of-Use-CU
Pending: State SB 280 (platform data/licensing preemption) vetoed by Gov. DeSantis June 2024 — not in force; SB 658 (pool water-safety at licensure) passed FL Senate Feb 2026, died in House Mar 13 2026 — not in force; City of Miami & Miami-Dade publicly examining tighter STR rules; 'Apartment Hotel' land-use classification still subject to ongoing litigation
Flags: City of Miami 'Apartment Hotel'/lodging land-use classification is under ongoing litigation citywide (not building-specific) — a structural regulatory overhang for downtown STR condos
Building is explicitly STR-permissive by design, but City of Miami runs active downtown STR code enforcement creating compliance friction.
Seasonal pricing rate card
Suggested ADR targets by season and the named local events that drive the peaks.
| Period | ADR target | Min stay | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Art Basel / NYE week (early Dec) | $420–560 | 4 nights | Biggest revenue week of the year — price to the ceiling; long-stay minimums. |
| Winter high-season weekend (Jan–Mar) | $300–380 | 2–3 nights | Peak leisure + snowbird + cruise demand; well above hotel ceiling. |
| F1 / Ultra / Miami Open weekends (late Mar–early May) | $400–520 | 3–4 nights | Named-event surge; stack minimum stays around each event. |
| Winter high-season weekday | $210–260 | 2 nights | Corporate/convention mid-week; sits just above the 4-star hotel ceiling. |
| Spring/fall shoulder | $190–240 | 2 nights | Blend of leisure + business; hold rate, use gap fills. |
| Summer weekend (Jun–Jul) | $180–230 | 2 nights | Domestic + LatAm summer travel; moderate. |
| Late-summer/early-fall weekday (Aug–Sep) | $150–185 | 2 nights | Softest trough — price at/below hotel ceiling to defend occupancy. |
Cost, ADR lift and rate targets are estimates derived from the live comp set. Advisory only, never part of the verdict, tier, or Year 1 math.
Neighborhood trajectory
Where this submarket is heading: capital, prices, and the ADR ceiling.
Long-term land-value trajectory is genuinely strong — District 225 sits at the edge of a $6B, 27-acre master plan next to Brightline. But the same pipeline is a near-term headwind: thousands of fully-furnished, no-rental-restriction units are landing in the immediate radius, which caps ADR-ceiling growth and keeps the condo resale market a buyer's market through the ramp period.
- Miami Worldcenter master plan (27 acres, 2nd-largest US urban development) · $6B (under construction — 8,400+ resi units + ~500 hotel keys in pipeline)
- 600 Miami Worldcenter (606 units, no rental restrictions) · $95M construction loan (topped off; closings Q4 2026)
- The Crosby (450 units, no rental restrictions) (under construction, delivering 2026)
- Flow House (466 units) (under construction, delivering 2026)
- JEM / JEM Private Residences (Naftali; 273 condos + 530 apts) · $465M financing (under construction, completion Q4 2027)
- Legacy Residences at Miami Worldcenter (278 units) (under construction, 2027)
- E11EVEN Beyond (461 units) (under construction, 2026-27)
The analyst's take
Legally clean, purpose-built STR product — but at realized market ADR the lease spread is thin; renegotiate rent or pass.
- Purpose-built, Airbnb-approved, A&P-managed building with a one-page hosting path — low operational/legal friction
- Event-driven upside: Art Basel, F1, Ultra/Miami Music Week, Miami Open, Heat playoffs (Kaseya 0.7mi) support 2-3x peak pricing
- Brightline/Metromover/Government Center at the door — strong business + cruise + convention demand
- Renegotiated rent or free months would flip a break-even deal into a genuine margin play
- CRITICAL new-supply pipeline — thousands of STR-friendly Worldcenter units delivering within 0.5mi over 18-36 months
- Realized ADR (~$206-215) sits below the model's $295 and near/below the downtown hotel ceiling — thin-to-negative lease spread
- Lease does not clearly permit STR (intake UNSURE) + City of Miami is a strict jurisdiction with apartment-hotel litigation overhang
- Downtown is a soft, high-inventory buyer's market with STR-friendly condo pricing 'under pressure'
What guests say: POSITIVE THEMES (across ~33 reviews): - Cleanliness & turnover: units repeatedly called clean, new, and well-stocked; highest sub-scores are cleanliness/accuracy. - Location: 5.0 location scores — steps from Government Center Metrorail, Brightline, Bayside, Kaseya Center. - Resort amenities: rooftop pool, spa/sauna, gym, movie theater and co-working consistently praised as the reason to book. - Host responsiveness: fast, professional communication (Superhost / pro-managed). NEGATIVE / WATCH THEMES: - Check-in friction: front-desk ID registration + key-fob pickup and 24-hour advance guest info can slow arrivals. - Parking quirks: 'move car every 24 hours' rules and off-site garage guidance cause confusion. - Occasional cleanliness/accuracy miss: one 2-star at #2302 shows turnover consistency must be watched at scale. - Amenity-access rules: first-come movie theater and building availability caps can disappoint guests expecting hotel service.
Risk & compliance checks
Every deal breaker we screen, scored on this property.
No bed bug, roach, or infestation reports surfaced for District 225; building is 2023–2025 new construction.
Downtown Miami grades safe overall, but zip Government Center shows elevated crime indices and proximity to some vacant lots south of the building.
District 225 is a purpose-built, Airbnb-approved condo-hotel with active professional STR management and positive early guest ratings.
Comp-implied 1BR STR ADR (~$300–337) sits ~1.7–2.0x the ~$170 median downtown 3-star hotel rate — healthy cushion.
Downtown/Government Center 1BR long-term market is deep and stable; comparable 1BRs cluster ~$2,050–3,015, supporting the RentCast $3,460 AVM band.
No adverse eviction, deposit, or bankruptcy records surfaced tied to the address or Related Group / Atlantic Pacific management.
Dense downtown STR cluster: District 225's own 343+ units plus surrounding condo-hotels put same-bed inventory in the 15–40 caution band.
Five-plus named, quantified demand drivers within 5mi — one of Miami's strongest STR demand nodes.
MIA departure corridor and urban traffic create ambient noise; Government Center has less nightlife exposure than Brickell but transit/highway noise present.
~4,254 units in the Brickell/Downtown pipeline delivering 2025–2028 — high-severity supply risk to occupancy and ADR.
Downtown Miami sits in a FEMA flood-risk county; verify the exact parcel's zone, but new elevated construction and county CRS participation mitigate.
Downtown Miami is in a sustained high-rise growth cycle with strong in-migration and rising values — trajectory positive.
Sources: every figure links back (27)
Open any to verify the data yourself.
- 01Trip.com guest review — District 225 · Probably because this is a newer property, several amenities were not yet fully operational.
- 02CrimeGrade.org — Downtown Miami · Downtown Miami ranks in the 65th percentile for safety.
- 03BestPlaces — Zip Government Center Crime · Miami (zip Government Center) violent crime is 75.1 (US average 22.7); property crime is 81.1 (US average 35.4).
- 04CondoBlackBook — District 225 · These residences will offer floorplans that maximize space and are Airbnb-approved.
- 05FunStay Florida — District 225 management · District 225, a 40-story tower with 384 fully furnished units purpose-built for Airbnb.
- 06Booking.com — 3-star Miami hotels · The average price per night for a 3-star hotel in Miami this weekend is $171.
- 07Expedia — hotels near Government Center Station · Amazing Apartments with city Views, 3.5 star, 0.4 mi from Government Center Station, $337.
- 08Rent.com — Downtown Miami 1BR · Government Center 1 Bed/1 Bath 648+ Sqft $2,050+; Downtown 5th 1 Bed 686 Sqft $3,015+.
- 09Homes.com — Government Center 1BR · Search 19 1-bedroom apartments for rent in ZIP Code Government Center.
- 10Chalet — Miami STR laws 2026 · Miami enforces STR rules aggressively, using platform monitoring and requiring permit numbers on all listings.
- 11Miami-Dade Metromover · Major destinations include the Kaseya Center, home of the Miami HEAT, Bayside Marketplace, Miami Dade College.
- 12Wikipedia — Government Center (Miami) · Government Center is bounded roughly by I-95 to the west.
- 13FludZone — Miami/Miami-Dade flood data · Miami-Dade County has recorded 62,001 NFIP flood insurance claims since 1978, totaling $854.9M.
- 14City of Miami Zoning — BFE/Freeboard · Height calculated from Base Flood Elevation plus Freeboard, 1 to 5 feet above BFE.
- 15Wikipedia — Demographics of Miami · The downtown population grew nearly 40% between 2010 and 2018.
- 16Miami Demographics 2025 · Miami's population in 2025 is 464,655, representing a 4.93% increase from 2020.
- 17Airbnb comp #1 · District 225 New & Modern Near Miami Worldcenter
- 18Airbnb comp #2 · Modern 1 Master Bedroom at District 225 #2302
- 19Airbnb comp #3 · Modern 1 Bedroom at District 225 #2309 | Premium Miami Master Suite
- 20Airbnb comp #4 · District 225 Modern Downtown Free Parking
- 21VRBO comp #5 · Miami Worldcenter 1BR Condo w/ Rooftop Pool & Spa (The Crosby)
- 22Expedia comp #6 · Luxury Resort-style Condo at District 225 Miami
- 23VRBO comp #7 · Miami Highrise with Rooftop Pool and Gym
- 24VRBO comp #8 · Flow Miami - 1 Bedroom Suite Pool View
- 25VRBO comp #9 · Miami Downtown Condos (5-star luxury condo-hotel)
- 26VRBO comp #10 · Miami Downtown / Brickell Highrise w/ Rooftop Pool
- 27STR ordinance / regulation
Figures shown are modeled projections from our analysis engine, not guarantees. Verify everything before committing. Some listing data provided by RentCast.
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