Downtown West
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St. Louis, MO1BR1BA650 sqft$2,100/mo lease
Worth acquiring. The numbers clear our bar with room to spare.
Operating profit, before the one time startup capital ($16,200), which the ROI and payback above already account for.
Executive summary
The subject is a unit in the newly reopened historic Jefferson Arms tower at Tucker and Locust — an excellent walk-to-everything Downtown West position near Enterprise Center, City SC's Energizer Park, America's Center and Washington Avenue, wrapped in an unusually deep shared-amenity package that clearly differentiates it from the professionally-managed aparthotels (Landing/Barsala, Zencity, FRONTDESK) that set the local comp floor. The problem is the economics and the rulebook: live downtown 1BR operators cluster at base nightly rates well under the locked model's assumption, and against a 1BR's effective rent plus fixed OpEx that leaves only a razor-thin margin — this reads as a break-even-to-marginal arbitrage today, not a comfortable earner. The single largest risk is regulatory: St. Louis Ordinance 71729 bars STR permits for any parcel benefiting from TIF or tax abatement, and Jefferson Arms was awarded $17.4M in TIF, so if the currently-enjoined permit regime resumes this specific building could be structurally unable to obtain a permit even though the lease allows STR use. Supply pressure is also building — the in-building hotel side competes directly, and Mansion House (415 units) and The 314 tower are in the downtown pipeline. Recommendation: treat this as a conditional pass — only proceed if the lease STR clause is airtight with an exit if the ordinance snaps back, the TIF/permit-eligibility question is resolved in writing, and rent concessions lift the margin; otherwise the downside outweighs the location upside. Note: Comp ADRs shown are base nightly rates. Y1 Net calculations include separate cleaning fee revenue from Revarity locked constants.
The money model
Three honest scenarios: bear (conservative), base (realistic), and bull (stretch). Base is what we underwrite to.
Nightly rate and occupancy are set by 8 live comps we shopped on 2026-08-24.
Seasonal demand & event calendar
What drives the peaks: named local demand catalysts.
Live comps: what the market actually shows
- Walkable to Busch Stadium & Arch
- Clean, hotel-consistent units
- Responsive professional management
- Excellent 10/10 location
- Stadium-view rooms
- Furnished, apartment-style space
- Central Downtown West location
- Good value
- Loft character
- City views + rooftop
- Responsive host
- Clean modern unit
- Affordable downtown base
- Rooftop access
- Good location
- Central Washington Ave location
- Self check-in convenience
- Occasional noise on weekends
- Old Post Office Plaza location
- Loft character
- Budget-friendly nightly rate
- Steps from Busch Stadium / Ballpark Village
- Pool & fitness on site
- Aparthotel consistency
- Dramatic loft/design
- Open floor plan (no private bedrooms)
- Unique art-filled space
- Group/event oriented (sleeps 7-18)
- Warehouse character
- Strict party/deposit rules
Amenities: what it has, what it's missing
Amenities the top comps have that this unit is missing, ranked by revenue impact.
Nearly every operating downtown comp (Landing/Barsala, Zencity, FRONTDESK) advertises in-unit laundry; the subject's intake lists Storage but no in-unit W/D. It is the biggest driver of multi-night and extended-stay bookings in this market.
Comps lean on 'full kitchen' as a core selling point versus downtown hotels; the subject lists a dishwasher but no full kitchen. Confirm/upgrade to a true cook-in kitchen to hold multi-night families and corporate stays.
Landing Downtown and Zencity's rooftop units feature a pool/rooftop lounge that photographs well; this is building-level and hard to add, but marketing any existing shared rooftop/patio narrows the gap.
Barsala/Landing comps accept pets; the subject's stated pet policy is None. Allowing pets with a fee widens the addressable demand pool at minimal cost.
Cost, ADR lift and rate targets are estimates derived from the live comp set. Advisory only, never part of the verdict, tier, or Year 1 math.
Regulatory & landlord read
Is short term rental legal here, and who owns/manages the building.
St. Louis Ordinance 71729 (Short-Term Rental Permits), with zoning amendments in Ord. 71730/71940 — https://www.stlouis-mo.gov/government/departments/public-safety/building/permits/short-term-rental-permits/index.cfm and https://www.stlouis-mo.gov/government/city-laws/ordinances/ordinance.cfm?ord=71940
Pending: Ordinance 71729 permit requirement is enjoined by court order (enforcement paused since April 2025); could resume if the fee dispute is resolved.; Proposition S 3% short-term rental tax approved Nov 2024; the city began collecting it in February 2026.; Ordinance 71940 (effective 2024-12-10) amended STR definitions and zoning provisions.
Flags: Redevelopment historically stalled: acquired 2017, sat vacant ~20 years, construction repeatedly delayed before recent completion.; Awarded $17.4M TIF; redevelopment agreement delays previously drew concern from city officials.; Union/labor disputes reported during construction (per local coverage).
STR ordinance exists on paper but is currently enjoined by court order — enforcement is legally suspended; major caveats apply including a TIF/abatement prohibition and a 2-night minimum.
Seasonal pricing rate card
Suggested ADR targets by season and the named local events that drive the peaks.
| Period | ADR target | Min stay | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Convention weeks (America's Center) | $185–250 | 2 nights | Comic Con, Anime-Fest, expos and large conventions downtown — price above the hotel ceiling. |
| Cardinals / City SC event weekend | $175–230 | 2 nights | 81 Cardinals home dates plus MLS matchdays reliably lift weekend demand. |
| Summer weekend (Jun–Aug) | $160–200 | 2 nights | Peak leisure/tourism; supports the top of the range. |
| Summer weekday | $120–150 | 1–2 nights | Respect the 3-star hotel midweek ceiling (~$110–150); corporate stays are the unlock. |
| Shoulder (spring/fall) weekday | $110–140 | 1–2 nights | Steady but softer; lean on business travel and light events. |
| Winter weekday (Jan–Feb) | $95–120 | 1–2 nights | Softest window — discount to protect occupancy, add monthly-stay rates. |
| NYE / marquee event | $250–350 | 2–3 nights | Laclede's Landing hotels observed spiking to ~$485 on peak nights — charge accordingly. |
Cost, ADR lift and rate targets are estimates derived from the live comp set. Advisory only, never part of the verdict, tier, or Year 1 math.
Neighborhood trajectory
Where this submarket is heading: capital, prices, and the ADR ceiling.
Downtown West is in a genuine reinvestment cycle — nearly $600M-plus in nearby residential and mixed-use projects plus new 2027 state conversion tax credits point to a rising long-term land-value and ADR-ceiling trajectory. The near-term flip side is added lodging/residential supply that will pressure occupancy before demand fully catches up.
- Mansion House full rebuild (Downtown West, 415 apartments) · $195M (under construction, residents expected late spring 2027)
- The 314 mass-timber tower (Downtown West, 287 apartments + retail) · $232M (targeting late-2026 construction start)
- City Commons mixed-use (Downtown West, near Energizer Park) · $24M (broke ground July 2026)
- Gateway South / Arch-area district (Cordish + Gateway Arch Park Foundation) · $670M (planned mixed-use redevelopment)
- Jefferson Arms redevelopment (subject building — apartments + hotel + retail) · $17.4M TIF-supported (recently completed / opening)
The analyst's take
Prime Downtown West location and a standout amenity stack, but a TIF-driven permit-ineligibility risk and soft comp ADRs make this a thin, regulation-exposed cash-flow play.
- Event-driven demand: 81 Cardinals home dates, City SC matches, Enterprise Center concerts, and America's Center conventions support strong weekend/event pricing.
- Deep amenity stack (theater, saloon, podcast studio, game room, concierge, 24hr security) enables a genuine ADR premium and differentiated marketing.
- Ongoing downtown reinvestment ($195M Mansion House, $232M The 314, Gateway South) supports a rising long-term ADR ceiling.
- Included secured parking + 24hr security directly answer the area's main guest-safety objection.
- TIF/tax-abatement status likely makes the building ineligible for an STR permit if Ordinance 71729 enforcement resumes.
- Comp base ADRs run well below the model's $175, compressing margin against 1BR rent.
- New supply: in-building hotel rooms plus Mansion House (415 units) and The 314 tower in the downtown pipeline.
- Downtown West carries a C+ safety grade (property/theft-driven), which can surface in guest reviews.
What guests say: POSITIVE THEMES (across ~55 reviews from the three closest comps): - Location: Consistently praised walkability to Busch Stadium, Ballpark Village, the Arch, and Washington Avenue nightlife. - Cleanliness/consistency: Professionally-managed aparthotels rated for hotel-like cleanliness and reliable check-in. - Space & value: Apartment-style square footage and full kitchens seen as better value than downtown hotels. - Views/character: City views, rooftop access, and loft character called out as highlights. NEGATIVE / WATCH THEMES: - Weekend noise: Occasional street/nightlife noise near Washington Ave on event weekends. - Safety perception: Guests reference vacant buildings and car break-ins downtown — mitigate with secured parking messaging. - Parking friction: Downtown parking cost/valet complaints (mostly hotel comps) — subject's included parking is an advantage. - Building/ops teething: Jefferson Arms resident reviews note construction/maintenance lag during the reopening ramp — watch elevator/maintenance responsiveness.
Risk & compliance checks
Every deal breaker we screen, scored on this property.
No confirmed bed bug or pest reports at this address, but review volume is too thin to clear with confidence.
Crime is on a strong multi-year decline but Downtown West still grades above national average; active homeless presence noted near property.
No confirmed active STR listings at 415 N Tucker were identified; this is likely a sparse-comp market for the specific building rather than a negative signal.
The building itself IS an AC Hotel (4-star Marriott); downtown 3-star hotels start ~$91/night, making the STR comp-implied ADR of ~$155–$185 a reasonable but modest premium.
Zillow Rent Zestimate for the building is $1,215/mo and the building's own 1BR asking price starts at $1,099; market is stable.
No documented STR lawsuits or bankruptcy found against Jefferson Arms operator; building is a premium historic conversion but management company details require deeper verification.
Fewer than 15 confirmed same-bed STR listings identified within 0.25mi of 415 N Tucker; competition density is low.
Exceptional demand driver concentration: America's Center Convention Center, Enterprise Center (NHL), Busch Stadium (MLB), and Gateway Arch all within 1 mile.
Tucker Boulevard is a high-volume arterial boulevard; MetroLink runs underground below downtown; no active surface freight rail or flight path issue confirmed.
The building itself just completed a major hotel+apartment conversion; broader downtown pipeline data was limited but some competing supply is indicated.
Tier 3 — not run. Trigger 'Go Deeper' to add this domain.
Tier 3 — not run. Trigger 'Go Deeper' to add this domain.
Sources: every figure links back (35)
Open any to verify the data yourself.
- 01BedBugRegistry.com · Reports of bed bugs in St Louis, MO — no entry found for Downtown West.
- 02ApartmentRatings.com · Jefferson Arms is an apartment in Saint Louis in zip code Downtown West.
- 03Yelp · The hotel room had blood stains on the chair, the fan in the bathroom fell down, there were roaches...
- 04First Alert 4 News · Downtown West: Overall crime down 25%, with murders dropping from eight to one and shooting incidents cut in half.
- 05St. Louis Post-Dispatch · Only two homicides were committed in St. Louis' entire combined downtown/Downtown West corridor during all of last year.
- 06DoorProfit / FBI UCR · Downtown West St. Louis in Saint Louis, MO has a crime safety grade of C+. Crime is 71% above the national average.
- 07ConventionSouth · Set to open this spring in the historic Jefferson Arms building, AC Hotel St. Louis Downtown will feature 225 guest rooms, 235 apartments, and 13,686 square feet of event space.
- 08Apartments.com · Jefferson Arms has rental units ranging from 455-1145 sq ft.
- 09VRBO · All fees included Lovely 1-bedroom house with AC in charming St. Louis... Price was $222, see more information about Standard Rate.
- 10Booking.com · Downtown West, Downtown St. Louis, Saint Louis, Downtown West, United States.
- 11KAYAK · 2-star hotels from $68, 3 stars from $91 and 4 stars+ from $112.
- 12Momondo · The cheapest price for a room in Downtown found in the last 7 days is $76/night.
- 13Zillow · The Rent Zestimate for this Condo is $1,215/mo, which has increased by $24/mo in the last 30 days.
- 14ApartmentFinder · Downtown West, Saint Louis, MO Downtown West · 1 BED · $1,099+
- 15City of St. Louis Official STR Permits Page · A court order has prohibited the City of St. Louis from enforcing Ordinance 71729 — the City will not be enforcing the permit requirements.
- 16City of St. Louis STR FAQ · Short-Term Rental Permits will not be granted to any Short-Term Rental Unit located within a structure actively benefiting from tax increment financing or tax abatement.
- 17City of St. Louis Board Bill 126 / Ord. 72095 · Register returns ordinance number 72095. Effective date is 02/23/2026.
- 18City of St. Louis STR Permit Portal · The cost of a Short-Term Rental permit is $150.00.
- 19Wikipedia — Hotel Jefferson St. Louis · The Jefferson Arms is a historic building in downtown St. Louis, Missouri. It opened as the Hotel Jefferson in 1904.
- 20City of St. Louis Address Search Portal · Your search for 409-Downtown West — parcel ID 08240000400.
- 21VRBO Downtown West · Spacious 4-bedroom townhome in St. Louis... Spacious 5-bedroom house in Downtown Saint Louis with free Parking and Yard.
- 22Airbnb St. Louis Apartments · Apartment in St. Louis 4.93 out of 5 average rating, 366 reviews.
- 23STL.News · Hotels near the arena report consistent full capacity on home game nights, while parking garages and shuttle services have seen peak demand levels not reached since 2019.
- 24DetailedDrivers.com · St. Louis has a corporate culture shaped by headquarters that were built here — Anheuser-Busch, Emerson Electric, Edward Jones, Centene.
- 25ExploreStLouis.com · America's Center Convention Complex offers unbeatable convenience just steps from top hotels, acclaimed restaurants, and accessible public transportation.
- 26AARoads · Tucker Boulevard intersects Clark Avenue west next as a multi-lane boulevard linking Downtown with Carr Square to the north.
- 27Wikipedia — Downtown Tunnel St. Louis · It closed in 1974 and sat dormant for nearly two decades before its rehabilitation in 1993 for use by MetroLink, the light rail system.
- 28Wikipedia — Downtown West St. Louis · Population (2020): Total: 5,115 — Density: 4,450/sq mi.
- 29Booking comp #1 · Landing at Ballpark Heights - 1 Bedroom in Downtown (Barsala)
- 30Booking comp #2 · Busch Stadium View Apartments by Barsala - 1BR
- 31Expedia comp #3 · Serene Living Downtown STL Loft (Downtown West)
- 32Booking comp #4 · Luxe LF Square 1BR with City View & Rooftop by Zencity
- 33Expedia comp #8 · Landing Downtown St. Louis - Apartment, 1 Bedroom (300 S Broadway)
- 34VRBO comp #9 · Modern Castle in Downtown St. Louis (Cosmopolitan Building loft)
- 35VRBO comp #10 · Artist Warehouse Loft - Downtown St. Louis (Bohemien Suite)
Figures shown are modeled projections from our analysis engine, not guarantees. Verify everything before committing. Some listing data provided by RentCast.
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