Downtown Miami
General area shown. The exact address and Airbnb-approved building are shared under NDA when you reserve or book a call.
Miami, FL1BR1BA401 sqft$3,000/mo lease
Worth acquiring. The numbers clear our bar with room to spare.
Operating profit, before the one time startup capital ($32,700), which the ROI and payback above already account for.
Executive summary
121 NE 5th is 501 First Residences, a brand-new (June 2026) Aria-built tower purpose-designed for short-term rental with no building rental restrictions, an genuinely elite amenity stack, and a location sitting on top of the Metromover in the heart of Miami Worldcenter — the location and legal footing are about as clean as this market offers. The catch is price: live, operating downtown one-bedrooms that sleep four (including units inside 501 First itself and neighboring YotelPad) are clearing base nightly rates well below the locked model's assumption, and this read agrees almost exactly with the independent trailing-12-month vendor actuals (~$206 ADR / ~60% occupancy), so I trust the lower number and treat the model ADR as optimistic. Against a full-service furnished downtown lease plus the building's resort/valet fee load, those rates leave a genuinely thin per-night margin — strong top-line but a marginal cash-flow play rather than the premium-tier winner the model implies. The dominant structural risk is supply: Miami Worldcenter has hundreds of amenity-matched, STR-legal units delivering within blocks over the next 18 months (600 MWC ~606 units, Downtown 6th, JEM, plus an 8,400-unit district pipeline), which will pressure both occupancy and rate exactly where this unit competes. I would only pursue it with the lease signed well below furnished asking rent, STR permission confirmed in writing, and aggressive pricing into the Dec–Apr and event calendar; on amenities there is nothing material to add — the building already out-equips the comp set. Note: Comp ADRs shown are base nightly rates. Y1 Net calculations include separate cleaning fee revenue from Revarity locked constants.
The money model
Three honest scenarios: bear (conservative), base (realistic), and bull (stretch). Base is what we underwrite to.
Seasonal demand & event calendar
What drives the peaks: named local demand catalysts.
Live comps: what the market actually shows
9 of 9 listings left out, their nightly rate wasn't clear
- Stunning skyline/bay views
- Responsive superhost communication
- Central location by Kaseya/Metromover
- Resort fee + valet fees surprise guests
- Clean modern unit
- Unbeatable central location (98 mentions)
- Helpful responsive host
- Free/easy parking praised
- Great city views
- Value/cleanliness rated slightly lower
- Brand-new modern unit
- Rooftop pool & skyline views
- Great walkability/Metromover
- Smooth self check-in
- Location rating slightly softer (street-level grit)
- Valet parking pricey
- New luxury finishes
- Same-building elite amenities
- Central Worldcenter location
- Furnished/turn-key
- Modern apartment at Miami Worldcenter
- Balcony city views
- Steps from Brightline/Metromover
- New building
- Professionally managed (Palermo Home)
- Clean well-maintained unit
- Friendly front-desk reception
- Great downtown location
- Aparthotel amenities (2 restaurants/bars)
- Steps to Bayfront Park/Bayside
- Modern compact unit
- Weekly housekeeping available
- Great bay & downtown views
- Central walkable location
- All-fees-included pricing
- Clean modern studio
- Functional Murphy-bed layout
- Downtown views
- Managed via Vrbo
- Very thin review history
- Clean well-maintained unit
- Friendly welcoming reception
- Great central location
- Modern building/amenities
Amenities: what it has, what it's missing
Regulatory & landlord read
Is short term rental legal here, and who owns/manages the building.
City of Miami — Miami 21 Zoning Code, Article 4 Table 3 (Lodging use permitted in T5/T6 transect zones; building must hold a Certificate of Use/Occupancy for lodging) + Miami-Dade County Code Sec. 33-28 (short-term vacation rentals). See https://gis.miami.gov/miami21Docs/T6-8.PDF and https://www.miamidade.gov/building/standards/residential-short-term-vacation-rentals.asp
Pending: FL SB 280 (statewide STR pre-emption) vetoed by Gov. DeSantis June 2024 — local control remains; FL SB 658 (pool water-safety at licensure) passed Senate Feb 2026, died in House Mar 13 2026; City of Miami establishing a separate 'Apartment Hotel' land-use category (T4/T5/CI-HD) with distinct CU/BTR classifications; Ongoing Airbnb v. City of Miami litigation continues to shape enforcement
Building is purpose-built STR-permissive with no rental restrictions, but City of Miami registration/tax compliance remain real cost/risk lines.
Seasonal pricing rate card
Suggested ADR targets by season and the named local events that drive the peaks.
| Period | ADR target | Min stay | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Art Basel week (early Dec) | $350–475 | 3 nights | Highest-demand week of the year citywide — price to the ceiling. |
| Event weekends (Ultra / Miami Open / F1 GP, Mar–May) | $320–450 | 3 nights | Named events spike downtown; require min-stay and premium rate. |
| Winter high-season weekend (Jan–Mar) | $260–330 | 2 nights | Peak leisure season; can exceed hotel ceiling on weekends. |
| Winter high-season weekday (Jan–Mar) | $200–240 | 2 nights | Respect 4-star hotel midweek ceiling (~$180–280); lean corporate/leisure. |
| Shoulder (Apr–May, Oct–Nov) | $180–220 | 2 nights | Steady demand; hold rate, avoid discounting into the pipeline. |
| Summer weekend (Jun–Aug) | $200–250 | 2 nights | Cruise/port + LatAm summer travel supports weekend rate. |
| Late-summer soft weekday (Aug–Sep) | $130–175 | 2 nights | Softest window (hurricane season); target mid-stay/relocation guests. |
Cost, ADR lift and rate targets are estimates derived from the live comp set. Advisory only, never part of the verdict, tier, or Year 1 math.
Neighborhood trajectory
Where this submarket is heading: capital, prices, and the ADR ceiling.
Miami Worldcenter's ~8,400-unit / 500-hotel-key district pipeline, Apple/retail promenade, World Square plaza and Brightline access are strongly positive leading indicators for 5–10yr land value. The same density, however, is a near-term headwind for STR rate and occupancy: a large share of the new units are explicitly 'no rental restriction' and will compete head-to-head with this unit within blocks.
- 600 Miami Worldcenter (Aria/Merrimac) · 606 furnished units, no rental restrictions, from ~$400k (delivering Q4 2026 (<0.2mi))
- Downtown 6th (Melo Group) · 581-ft tower (completing ~end 2026)
- The Crosby Miami Worldcenter (Related/Merrimac) · 450 units (completed)
- JEM Miami Worldcenter (Naftali) · $465M financing; 535 apts + 273 condos (under construction, Q4 2027)
- Lalezarian Block E tower (20 NE 8th) · $220M; ~705 rental units (in permit review)
The analyst's take
Legally clean, amenity-elite, prime location — but live rates run ~30% under the model, making this a thin-margin arbitrage into a supply-flooded submarket.
- Strong, dated demand calendar: winter high season plus Art Basel, Ultra, Miami Open, F1 Miami GP and Heat/Kaseya events
- Legally clean, no-rental-restriction building with a defined DBPR/CU/BTR licensing path
- Elite amenity stack + Metromover-at-door / Brightline / Worldcenter walkability supports premium positioning vs older comps
- Year-round mixed leisure + business + cruise-port demand cushions occupancy
- Negotiating a rent concession (free weeks) or a below-ask furnished rate would swing the margin from marginal to workable
- Live comp ADR and independent trailing-12-mo vendor actuals (~$206) run ~30% below the locked model's $288 — model S-tier appears overstated
- CRITICAL new-supply pipeline: 500+ STR-legal, amenity-matched units delivering within 0.5mi over 18 months (600 MWC, Downtown 6th, The Crosby, JEM, Lalezarian)
- High furnished downtown lease cost + building resort/destination + valet fees compress the arbitrage margin to near break-even
- Lease-level STR permission is UNSURE despite the building allowing STR — one long-term-lease listing for the building explicitly said 'No short-term rentals'
- 401 sqft at the bottom of the size range; guest 'value' scores already the softest theme in comp reviews
What guests say: POSITIVE THEMES (across ~70 reviews from top 3 comps): - Location: overwhelmingly the #1 praise — Metromover at the door, walk to Kaseya Center, Bayside, Bayfront Park, Brightline. - Host responsiveness: superhosts praised for fast, helpful communication and smooth self check-in. - Views & new build: skyline/bay views and brand-new modern finishes cited repeatedly. - Amenities: rooftop pool, gym and building lounges consistently well received. NEGATIVE / WATCH THEMES: - Surprise fees: resort/destination fees (~$38.50/day) and valet parking ($50–76/day) repeatedly frustrate guests — set expectations up front. - Value perception: 'value' is the lowest sub-score on the highest-review comp — small units feel tight for the price. - Parking friction: valet-only/limited parking is a recurring pain point; flag the cheaper College Station garage. - Street-level grit / urban noise: location sub-score dips slightly at 501 First; nightlife and construction noise worth mitigating with messaging and comfort touches.
Risk & compliance checks
Every deal breaker we screen, scored on this property.
No pest/infestation reports found for this brand-new (2026) building; no BedBugRegistry or resident-review hits.
Central-downtown location with real homeless-drift and violent-incident history nearby, though not immediately adjacent to the building.
Multiple active 501 First STR listings already operating across Airbnb/Expedia/Hotels.com with positive early guest sentiment.
Comp-implied 1BR ADR (~$300–$330) sits comfortably above the ~$150–$170 median 3-star downtown hotel rate.
Solid same-building 1BR long-term comp set at ~$2,800–$3,590/mo; downtown rental market stable and absorbing new supply.
No eviction, deposit-dispute, or STR-operator litigation found tied to 501 First or developer Aria Development Group.
Same-building STR cluster plus dense downtown 1BR inventory puts competition in the 15–40 range within 0.25mi.
Five-plus named, quantified demand drivers within 5mi; downtown Miami is the market's strongest STR demand node.
Dense downtown entertainment core with nearby nightlife, event venues and a nearby rail corridor — nuisance risk elevated but not extreme.
Heavy Downtown/Brickell multifamily and STR-tower pipeline (thousands of units) represents high-severity supply pressure within ~1mi.
FEMA Zone X (moderate/minimal flood risk), brand-new 2026 construction, no historical code-violation record.
Downtown Miami is an actively-appreciating high-growth urban core with strong income and continued vertical investment.
Sources: every figure links back (29)
Open any to verify the data yourself.
- 01Hotels.com – 501 First Residences reviews · Travelers said: "The room was beautiful!"
- 02NBC 6 South Florida · shooting at a homeless encampment by the railroad tracks next to the Brightline station between NW 6th and 8th Street
- 03Local 10 News · a stranger attacked her while she walked with her dog in downtown Miami
- 04Airbnb – 501 First Residences building page · 501 First Residences is located at Downtown Miami in Downtown Miami, FL Downtown Miami
- 05FunStay Florida · 501 First Residences is a luxury property with no rental restrictions, making it a prime spot for short-term rentals.
- 06Travelocity – Downtown Miami 3-star hotels · Comfort Inn & Suites Downtown Brickell $150 nightly; Hotel Indigo Miami Brickell $295; YVE Hotel Miami $138
- 07Travelocity – Downtown Miami 4-star hotels · The Elser Hotel Miami $288 nightly; Gale Miami Hotel and Residences $277
- 08Apartment List – Downtown Miami · $2,800/month, based on a 1-year lease
- 09Rentable – Downtown Miami · Rent price: $3,350 / month, 1 bedroom
- 10501 First developer/sales page · 501 First is a luxury residential building with short term rentals, in the heart of Downtown Miami
- 11One Sotheby's International Realty · a brand-new 40-story condominium in Downtown Miami with no rental restrictions
- 12Miami Condo Investments · developed by Aria Development Group ... Completed in 2026 and rising 40 stories, 501 FIRST Residences has 448 condo residences
- 13CondoBlackBook · 501 First Residences, Downtown Miami, Miami, FL Downtown Miami ... Prices start from the $300,000s
- 14Airbnb – 501 First by Palermo Home · 501 First Residences by Palermo Home Miami
- 15Rabbu Miami market data · 1-bedroom properties make up the largest segment with 2,884 listings
- 16Atlantikos · the FIFA World Cup 2026. Miami is confirmed to host seven matches
- 17AirROI Miami market report · Supply grew 25.5% over the past year, yet revenue and nightly rates both trended upward
- 18Demographics of Miami (Wikipedia) · spurred by high-rise construction in Downtown Miami, Edgewater, and Brickell, Miami's population began to grow quickly once more
- 19Quantumrun – Miami Demographics · 41% of current residents moved to Miami after 2021
- 20Airbnb comp #1 · Modern Downtown Miami Apt with Stunning City Views
- 21Airbnb comp #2 · *Free Parking* - Beautiful Studio - Amazing View!
- 22Airbnb comp #3 · Skyline Apartment | Rooftop Pool (501 First)
- 23Airbnb comp #4 · Miami 1 BD/1 BA Studio! 501 First Residence (3108)
- 24Airbnb comp #5 · 501 First Downtown Miami Balcony & City View
- 25VRBO comp #7 · YOTELPAD Miami sleek modern condominium (1BR)
- 26VRBO comp #8 · AM2212 Downtown Miami Great Views Studio (YotelPad)
- 27Expedia comp #9 · Downtown Miami Yotel 1 Bedroom
- 28Booking comp #10 · 501 First Miami Worldcenter by Palermo Home Miami
- 29STR ordinance / regulation
Figures shown are modeled projections from our analysis engine, not guarantees. Verify everything before committing. Some listing data provided by RentCast.
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